Metrics cut 2
- FY27 cement volume growth guidance cut to 8-9% (from 11-12%)
- FY27 subsidy income guidance cut to ~₹115 crores (from ₹145-150 crores)
Event Participants
Executives
2 Tushar Bhajanka (Deputy Managing Director), Manoj Agarwal (Chief Financial Officer)
Analysts
6 Harsh Mittal (Emkay Global), Jyoti Gupta (Ashika Institutional Equities), Naveen Sahadev (ICICI Securities), Prateek Kumar (Jefferies), Rajesh Ravi (HDFC Securities), Shravan Shah (Dolat Capital)
Financials & KPIs
| Metric | Reported | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Clinker Production | 9.10 lakh tons | +2.2% YoY vs 8.90 lakh tons in Q1 FY26 |
| Cement Production | 13.08 lakh tons | +6.3% YoY vs 12.31 lakh tons in Q1 FY26 |
| Cement Sales Volume | 13.02 lakh tons | +6.5% YoY vs 12.22 lakh tons in Q1 FY26 |
| Clinker Sales Volume | 0.52 lakh tons | -29.7% YoY vs 0.74 lakh tons in Q1 FY26 |
| Northeast Cement Volume | 8.71 lakh tons | +0.4% YoY vs 8.67 lakh tons in Q1 FY26 |
| Outside Northeast Volume | 4.31 lakh tons | +21.4% YoY vs 3.55 lakh tons in Q1 FY26 |
| Total Revenue | ₹902 crores | +6.5% YoY vs ₹847 crores in Q1 FY26 |
| EBITDA | ₹203 crores | -11.7% YoY vs ₹230 crores in Q1 FY26; impacted by reduced subsidy, higher packing costs, shutdown expenses |
| EBITDA per Ton | ₹1,497 | vs ₹1,774 in Q1 FY26 (-15.6% YoY); excluding one-off subsidy impact of ₹40 crores, EBITDA per ton was positive |
| Profit After Tax | ₹74 crores | -24.5% YoY vs ₹98 crores in Q1 FY26 |
| Fuel Cost (KCal) | ₹1.555 | vs ₹1.33 in Q4 FY26; sharp increase due to coal diversion to power plants, shift to spot purchases |
| Premium Sales Share | 15.9% | Of overall cement sales |
| Trade Share | 80% | Of overall cement sales |
| Lead Distance | 210 km | Stable logistics footprint |
| Clinker Factor | 66.5% | Blend mix ~15% OPC, rest PPC |
| Green Share | 3% | Includes WHRS; solar/group captive under evaluation |
| Incentive Receivable | ₹130 crores | Outstanding from Assam government; total book size ₹794 crores |
| Capex (Q1) | ₹93 crores | FY27 capex guidance maintained at ₹500 crores |
| Total Capex (Rajasthan project) | ₹2,600-2,900 crores | Includes Nimbler clinker plant and Haryana grinding; includes/excludes GST variation |
Geographic & Segment Commentary
Northeast: Volume grew only 0.4% YoY to 8.71 lakh tons. Q1 was impacted by Assam elections in April (covering 60-70% of NE market) and monsoon onset in May-June. Management maintains no market share loss; Northeast industry growth estimated at 1-1.5% for Q1. FY27 Northeast growth guided at 8-9% for Star, with industry at ~7%, driven by pent-up demand in H2.
Outside Northeast (Bihar, West Bengal): Strong growth of 21.4% YoY to 4.31 lakh tons. West Bengal demand described as "quite good" with sand mining crackdown temporarily muting offtake. Prices in Bihar ~₹10/ton higher than Northeast; West Bengal prices ~₹3/ton above Q1 exit levels.
Company-Specific & Strategic Commentary
Rajasthan Expansion: Integrated Nimbler plant (3.3 MTPA clinker + 3 MTPA grinding) remains core strategic priority. Received Standard Approved Package with capital subsidy and SGST benefits (quantum to be shared in next presentation). EC expected by end September/early October; ground work starts mid-October to November. Commissioning targeted Q4 FY28 or Q1 FY29 (18-20 months from start). Total project cost ₹2,600-2,900 crores (including Haryana grinding; GST variance explains range).
West Bengal Grinding Unit Evaluation: Awaiting new West Bengal government's industrial policy (expected ~15th August). If favorable, brownfield expansion at Siliguri (existing railway siding, land available) may be prioritized over Bihar grinding unit. Decision logic: 2 MTPA single-location unit preferred over 1+1 MTPA split for economies of scale. Wagon tippler planned at Siliguri for clinker and fly ash movement, expected to save ~₹150/ton on Siliguri sales.
Cost Optimization Initiatives: Railway siding at Guwahati operationalization by October-November to serve South Assam more efficiently. EV fleet introduction on select routes within 5-6 months. Fuel cost expected to decline from ₹1.555 to ~₹1.45 in Q2 as FSA (Fuel Supply Agreement) coal availability normalizes.
Building Solutions Division: ₹150 crores revenue guidance for AAC and RMC maintained, though current run-rate trails; expected to reach ₹150 crore annualized by Q4 FY27.
Guidance & Outlook
| Metric | Guidance / Outlook | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| FY27 Cement Volume Growth | Revised to 8-9% (from 11-12%) | Q1 (elections) and Q2 (floods) impacted; expects double-digit growth in Q3-Q4 on pent-up demand; Northeast industry growth ~7% |
| FY27 Clinker Sales | Stagnant or -5% to -10% YoY | Clinker inflows from outside Northeast increasing, reducing local clinker demand |
| Q2 FY27 EBITDA per Ton | ~₹1,400 | Shutdown costs and monsoon-related lower volume absorption; fuel cost to decline to ~₹1.45 |
| FY27 EBITDA per Ton | ₹1,500-1,600 achievable | Management confident of catching up in Q3/Q4; cost savings from logistics initiatives |
| Q2 NSW Volume | July volumes -12% YoY; expect recovery in September | Assam floods; September FY26 base was weak (GST reduction impact), aiding YoY comparison |
| FY27 Capex | ₹500 crores | Maintenance and ongoing projects, primarily Rajasthan |
| FY28 Capex | ~₹1,500 crores | Primarily directed to Rajasthan/North expansion |
| FY27 Subsidy Income | ~₹115 crores (vs earlier ₹145-150 crores) | Assam govt changed subsidy schedule to equal installments over remaining years (~12-year useful life), reducing annual recognition by ~₹30 crores |
| Non-Cement Revenue (Building Solutions) | ₹150 crores ARR by Q4 FY27 | RMC plant expansion and AAC focus; current run-rate below target |
| QIP | Not actively considered | Management to maintain ~1.5-1.6x net debt/EBITDA; QIP possible at "opportune time" for organic/inorganic opportunities |
Risks & Constraints
| Risk | Context |
|---|---|
| Assam Floods & Q2 Disruption | Severe flooding across Northeast; Assam completely shut in July; volumes down 12% YoY. Management expects recovery from September as monsoon subsides, with pent-up demand release in Q3-Q4 |
| Fuel Cost Volatility | KCal cost jumped from ₹1.33 (Q4 FY26) to ₹1.555 (Q1 FY27) due to FSA coal diversion to power plants, forcing higher-cost spot purchases. Management expects ₹1.45 in Q2 but global turmoil and war situation affect petcoke/bag prices |
| Subsidy Schedule Change | Assam government now equally distributes subsidy over remaining years (~12-year lifecycle), reducing FY27 subsidy recognition by ~₹30 crores to ~₹115 crores. Company has ₹130 crores receivables outstanding (total book ₹794 crores) |
| Packing Material Inflation | PP bag prices elevated due to international turmoil/war; unpredictable trajectory, adds cost pressure. Management sees limited scope for reduction near-term |
| West Bengal Policy Uncertainty | New government's industrial policy (expected Aug 15) unknown; if unfavorable, may redirect capex from Bihar; decision deferred to next call. Sand mining crackdown also temporarily muted demand |
| Competitive Capacity Additions | Two players adding ~1 MTPA clinker each in Northeast over next 3 years; Dalmia's ramp-up watched but management denies market share loss |
| Election & Demand Slippage | Q1 elections and Q2 floods caused demand shortfall; FY27 growth revised down by 250-300 bps. Recovery contingent on H2 pickup |
Q&A Highlights
Volume Growth & FY27 Outlook
- Question: Q1 volume lower than expected; is the 10-12% cement volume growth guidance for FY27 still valid? (Shravan Shah, Dolat Capital)
- Answer: Q2 will see muted growth due to Assam floods; Q3-Q4 should see double-digit growth on pent-up demand. Full-year volume growth revised to 8-9%. Clinker sales may decline 5-10% as clinker from outside Northeast enters market. (Tushar Bhajanka)
Fuel Cost & Q2 EBITDA Expectations
- Question: Fuel cost jumped to ₹1.555 vs ₹1.33 in Q4; how do costs and prices move in Q2? (Shravan Shah, Dolat Capital)
- Answer: FSA coal diverted to power plants in Q1, forcing expensive spot purchases. Fuel cost expected to decline to ~₹1.45 in Q2 and further in Q3-Q4. PP bag costs elevated due to war situation, hard to predict. Q2 EBITDA per ton may be ~₹1,400 due to shutdown costs and monsoon-related lower absorption; ₹1,500-1,600 achievable for full year. (Tushar Bhajanka)
Rajasthan Plant Timeline
- Question: When will Rajasthan plant come on stream and reach target utilization? (Jyoti Gupta, Ashika Institutional Equities)
- Answer: EC expected by end September/early October; ground work starts November. Commissioning in 18-20 months — Q4 FY28 or Q1 FY29. (Tushar Bhajanka)
Northeast Demand & Competition
- Question: Is Northeast decline due to elections or Dalmia's capacity ramp-up? (Rajesh Ravi, HDFC Securities)
- Answer: Primarily election and monsoon impact; no market share loss. Northeast industry growth ~1-1.5% in Q1; Star growth 0.4%. For FY27, industry expected ~7%, Star 8-9%. Northeast clinker capacity ~15-15.5 MTPA; grinding ~23-24 MTPA. (Tushar Bhajanka, Manoj Agarwal)
West Bengal Grinding vs Bihar — Capex Decision
- Question: Will 2 MTPA grinding shift entirely to West Bengal if policy is favorable? (Shravan Shah, Dolat Capital)
- Answer: West Bengal brownfield Siliguri expansion may make sense with 2 MTPA single location (economies of scale); splitting 1+1 MTPA across states likely not optimal. Siliguri has land, railway siding; wagon tippler will improve economics by
₹150/ton. Decision after West Bengal industrial policy release (Aug 15). (Tushar Bhajanka)
Capex & QIP Plans
- Question: What is capex quantum for FY27-FY28 and is a QIP contemplated? (Shravan Shah, Dolat Capital)
- Answer: Q1 capex spent ~₹93 crores; FY27 guidance ₹500 crores; FY28 ~₹1,500 crores. Total Rajasthan + North project ~₹2,600-2,900 crores (GST variance). QIP not actively considered; management focuses on 1.5-1.6x net debt/EBITDA, will act "at opportune time." (Manoj Agarwal, Tushar Bhajanka)
Subsidy Receivables & Assam Policy Change
- Question: What is the outstanding subsidy receivable and impact of Assam policy change? (Naveen Sahadev, ICICI Securities)
- Answer: Total book ~₹794 crores; ₹140 crores received till June; ~₹10 crores outstanding till March FY26; ₹130 crores total outstanding. Assam government now spreads subsidy equally over 12 years (2-3 years already lapsed), reducing FY27 subsidy income by ~₹20-30 crores to ~₹115 crores. (Manoj Agarwal, Tushar Bhajanka)
July Volume Performance & September Recovery
- Question: Any risk of negative YoY growth due to floods? (Naveen Sahadev, ICICI Securities)
- Answer: July volumes -12% YoY due to complete Assam shutdown. August shows marginal positive growth. September last year had GST reduction impact (weak base), so expect catch-up; net Q2 likely close to flat/marginal growth. (Tushar Bhajanka)
Green Share & Fuel Mix
- Question: What is green share and fuel mix for Q1? (Shravan Shah, Dolat Capital)
- Answer: Green share ~3% (includes WHRS); solar/group captive contracts being evaluated, details in Q3/Q4. Fuel mix ~45% FSA, ~30% spot coal, balance biomass/other. FSA coal was diverted to power plants in Q1, causing spot purchases and higher fuel cost. (Tushar Bhajanka)
Building Solutions Revenue Guidance
- Question: Is the ₹150 crores non-cement revenue guidance maintained? (Harsh Mittal, Emkay Global)
- Answer: ₹150 crores is revenue (not EBITDA) target for AAC and RMC. Current run-rate trails due to sluggish demand; focus on expanding RMC plants and AAC to reach ₹150 crores annualized by Q4 FY27. (Tushar Bhajanka)
Key Takeaway
Star Cement delivered a weak Q1 FY27 with total revenue of ₹902 crores (+6.5% YoY) but EBITDA declining 11.7% to ₹203 crores, primarily due to a ₹40 crore subsidy impact from GST reduction (28% to 18%), elevated packaging costs, and shutdown expenses; EBITDA per ton fell to ₹1,497 from ₹1,774. Management revised FY27 volume growth guidance down to 8-9% (from 11-12%) due to Assam elections and severe flooding, though expects double-digit recovery in H2 on pent-up demand. Strategic focus remains the Rajasthan integrated plant (₹2,600-2,900 crores capex; EC expected by October; commissioning by Q4 FY28/Q1 FY29) with timely receipt of state incentives, alongside evaluating a West Bengal brownfield grinding expansion at Siliguri pending the new industrial policy (expected mid-August), which could trigger a capex redirection from Bihar. Cost initiatives including Guwahati railway siding operationalization, wagon tippler at Siliguri (₹150/ton savings), and EV fleet adoption target full-year EBITDA per ton of ₹1,500-1,600, with near-term Q2 pressure (₹1,400) from shutdown costs and monsoons. Key watch points include fuel cost normalization to ₹1.45, clarity on Assam subsidy receivables (₹130 crores outstanding), West Bengal policy impact on capex allocation, and the 2027 demand recovery trajectory.
Transcript incomplete — Financials section verified against management presentation figures; certain operational metrics (capital adequacy, inventory turnover) not applicable to cement industry and not disclosed in call.