Event Participants
Executives
4
Ashish Khanna, Rajat Seksaria, Saurabh Shah, Vijil Jain
Analysts
10
Abhishek Khanna, Anuj Upadhyay, Apoorva Bahadur, Baiju Joshi, Bhagya Biradar, Bhavik Shah, Dhruv Muchhal, Nikhil Nigania, Shirom Kapur, Swetha Rakhecha
Financials & KPIs
| Metric | Reported | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Installed capacity | >20 GW | Crossed 20 GW milestone in Q1; 4.3 GW added YoY (+27%); India's largest greenfield renewable portfolio, powering ~9 million homes and avoiding ~37 million tons CO₂ annually |
| BESS installed capacity | 3.5 GW-hour | Added 1.9 GW-hour at Khavda during the quarter; was 1.6 GW-hour at FY26 end |
| Energy sales | 13.7 billion units | +30% YoY, driven by capacity expansion and strong operations/asset availability |
| Revenue from power supply | ₹4,280 crore | +29% YoY |
| EBITDA from power supply | ₹4,122 crore | +33% YoY |
| EBITDA margin | 94% | High conversion on power-supply revenue |
| Run-rate EBITDA (operational portfolio) | ₹17,000 crore | Current run-rate including tied-up BESS; CFO expects ~₹21,000 crore by FY27 end |
| Curtailment impact | 5–7% of EBITDA | In line with expectations; expected to be fully resolved from Khavda by end-CY2026 as transmission lines are energized |
| Infirm power realizations | ~₹2.5 per unit | Sold on merchant market including RECs |
| PPA achievement (Q1) | 31% of annual requirement | Structural seasonality (CUF stronger in Q1); historical annual delivery averages 109–110% |
| Q1 CapEx | ₹8,800 crore | +41% YoY; FY27 guidance ~₹42,000 crore |
Geographic & Segment Commentary
Utility-Scale Renewables (Solar/Wind/Hybrid): Surpassed 20 GW installed capacity during the quarter; energy sales rose 30% YoY to 13.7 billion units. Khavda, the world's largest renewable installation, crossed 10 GW of installed solar, wind, and hybrid assets. Management is evaluating multiple additional "very large" sites with high solar radiation, leveraging Khavda execution experience.
Battery Energy Storage (BESS): Commissioned 1.9 GW-hour at Khavda in Q1, taking installed capacity to 3.5 GW-hour — roughly half of India's operational BESS. Unit economics based on arbitrage: charging at ~₹2.5/unit, monetizing at ₹4–5 during evening peaks. FY27 target is 10+ GW-hour cumulative; by year-end AGEL expects to represent over two-thirds of India's operational BESS capacity.
Pump Hydro Storage (PSP): Maiden 500 MW Chitravathi project in Andhra Pradesh is on schedule for commissioning in FY27. Cumulative PSP ambition of 5 GW by 2030; offtake decisions (direct vs. AESL) to be evaluated nearer to commissioning, except projects already tied up directly.
C&I / Merchant (Adani Energy Solutions arrangement): Merchant capacity is being re-contracted to AESL on long-term, fixed-price PPAs (25 years for solar/wind, 15 years for BESS) at SECI-benchmark, arm's-length, Board-approved rates — effectively converting merchant risk into predictable long-term returns. AESL disclosed ~4 GW of generation contracted from AGEL on its call.
Company-Specific & Strategic Commentary
De-risking via AESL PPAs: AGEL has contracted previously merchant capacity with Adani Energy Solutions on SECI-standard, take-or-pay terms with no termination-on-convenience clauses; AESL absorbs market volatility, ISTS/ALMM waiver benefits, and price risk, insulating AGEL and locking in ~15–16% hurdle returns. Only infirm power and pre-PPA early-generation sales remain open to market.
Khavda mega-site execution: World's largest renewable installation crossed 10 GW installed; execution experience is being leveraged to evaluate other "very large" greenfield sites as the company scales toward its 2030 ambition.
Technology & digitization: Focus on technology adoption, data analytics, and predictive maintenance is a key enabler for superior operational performance and maximizing asset availability.
ESG & global recognition: Achieved the highest CRISIL ESG score in the Indian power sector for the fifth consecutive year; received the Clean Power Generation Award at Reuters Energy Industry Awards 2026 in New York.
Sector tailwinds: India reached 283 GW of installed non-fossil capacity (>50% of cumulative capacity) ahead of its 2030 trajectory, targeting 500 GW by 2030; rising AI/data-center-led power demand supports AGEL's integrated RE-plus-storage positioning for firm, dispatchable power.
Guidance & Outlook
| Metric | Guidance / Outlook | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| RE capacity addition FY27 | 5 GW greenfield | On track; excludes BESS and PSP capacity |
| BESS capacity FY27 | 10+ GW-hour cumulative | 3.5 GW-hour already installed; projects at advanced construction stage, but no quarterly phasing guidance due to deep commissioning/stabilization phases in a nascent segment |
| BESS ambition FY30 | ~50 GW-hour | Long-term ambition |
| PSP FY27 | 500 MW Chitravathi commissioning | On schedule; maiden pump storage project |
| FY27 CapEx | ~₹42,000 crore | Funds 5 GW RE expansion + 10+ GW-hour cumulative BESS |
| FY27 end run-rate EBITDA | ~₹21,000 crore | Includes BESS contribution; current run-rate ₹17,000 crore; BESS EBITDA thumb rule of ₹25–30 lakh per MW-hour based on capitalization over next nine months |
| Curtailment | Nil from Khavda by end-CY2026 | 7 GW of evacuation capacity expected by end-CY2026; balance of 14 GW in another 1–2 quarters |
| PPA delivery | ~100%+ annually (historical average 109–110%) | Q1 at 31% is in line with structural seasonality; weather outlook supportive |
| BESS capex cost | ~₹1.5 crore per MW-hour | Varies by system duration (2-hour vs. 4-hour); currency-dependent |
Risks & Constraints
| Risk | Context |
|---|---|
| Transmission/evacuation delays | 14 GW of evacuation capacity is being added (7 GW by end-CY2026, balance in 1–2 quarters more); slippage would prolong curtailment, currently costing 5–7% of EBITDA. Management is closely monitoring timelines to minimize capital drag and capitalize early on any early availability. |
| Curtailment persistence | Curtailment impact of 5–7% of EBITDA persists until transmission infrastructure is energized; management expects full relief from Khavda by end-CY2026 but this depends on grid readiness. |
| Related-party/counterparty concentration | A significant portion of capacity, including BESS, is contracted to Adani Energy Solutions, shifting risk to a group entity. Mitigants: arm's-length, SECI-standard, take-or-pay PPAs with Board/Audit Committee approval and fixed prices for 15–25 years. |
| BESS execution & supply chain | 10+ GW-hour commissioning in FY27 is a steep ramp in a nascent segment; deep commissioning and stabilization phases create phasing uncertainty. Management cites advanced construction, secured supply chain, and Tier-1 OEMs. |
| Battery safety/operational risk | High energy density of LFP batteries demands strict safety protocols; an industry incident was clarified as a PCS/inverter (IGBT) failure, not a battery fire. Mitigated by European-grade safety norms, rigorous monitoring, standard insurance with underwriter evaluation, and vendor warranties. |
| Policy/regulatory changes | Expiry/waivers of ISTS charges and ALMM requirements necessitate accelerated commissioning to lock in subsidies for 25 years; future policy shifts could alter project economics. |
| Rooftop solar competition | Rooftop installations (~8 GW last year, ~12 GW annualized run-rate) could pressure utility-scale demand; management believes evening/night peaks and large C&I consumers protect the utility segment. |
Q&A Highlights
Merchant capacity shift to Adani Energy (AESL)
- Question: What is the rationale for reclassifying merchant plants as C&I, and is ~4 GW now contracted to AESL? (Nikhil Nigania)
- Answer: Ashish Khanna confirmed the strategy: AGEL signed arm's-length, Board-approved PPAs with AESL to de-risk merchant volatility and focus on project execution and operational excellence; returns match recent long-term PPA tariffs. Battery storage capacity will also be tied up with AESL. For the 2030 pipeline, only DISCOM PPAs and pre-PPA infirm sales will remain open; no open merchant capacity is planned. (Ashish Khanna)
AESL contract terms and pricing
- Question: Are the AESL agreements long-term with price reset clauses, and at what per-unit rates? (Apoorva Bahadur)
- Answer: Saurabh Shah: batteries are 15-year fixed-term; solar/wind are 25-year fixed-term with no expected price change. Pricing is at market benchmark with Audit Committee and arm's-length oversight; the return profile is in line with the ~15–16% hurdle IRR. Ashish Khanna confirmed SECI-standard PPA terms, take-or-pay basis, and no termination-on-convenience for either party. (Saurabh Shah, Ashish Khanna)
Curtailment and evacuation timeline
- Question: How is curtailment trending, and what is the timeline for the 14 GW evacuation capacity additions? (Nikhil Nigania, Swetha Rakhecha)
- Answer: Ashish Khanna: curtailment impact is 5–7% of EBITDA, in line with expectations, and should be fully resolved from Khavda by end-CY2026. Saurabh Shah: 7 GW of evacuation capacity expected by end-CY2026, with the balance in another one to two quarters; management keeps close monitoring to align capital deployment and capture early capacity. (Ashish Khanna, Saurabh Shah)
BESS EBITDA trajectory and phasing
- Question: How should we model BESS EBITDA for FY27, and how will the 10+ GW-hour target phase across quarters? (Baiju Joshi, Bhagya Biradar)
- Answer: Saurabh Shah guided to ₹25–30 lakh EBITDA per MW-hour for FY27; the first 3.5 GW-hour was fully capitalized by May end, so full benefit flows over the next nine months. BESS will be reported as a separate line item going forward. Rajat Seksaria: no quarterly phasing guidance due to deep commissioning/stabilization phases; projects are at advanced construction and on track for FY27. (Saurabh Shah, Vijil Jain, Rajat Seksaria)
BESS cost and capacity math
- Question: What is the battery capex cost per MW-hour, and can you reconcile installed vs. commissioned capacity? (Bhavik Shah via Q&A, Shirom Kapur)
- Answer: Rajat Seksaria: ~₹1.5 crore per MW-hour installed cost, varying by system duration (2-hour vs. 4-hour). Saurabh Shah: FY26-end installed capacity was 1.6 GW-hour; 1.9 GW-hour added in Q1 takes total to 3.5 GW-hour — the earlier cited 1.4 GW referred to commissioned executable capacity. (Rajat Seksaria, Saurabh Shah)
Battery safety and insurance
- Question: Given the industry incident, is battery fire a real risk, and is there warranty/insurance cover? (Abhishek Khanna)
- Answer: Rajat Seksaria clarified the viral video was misreported — the failure was in PCS/inverters (IGBT component), not batteries; such component failures can occur in any plant. LFP energy density requires rigorous safety protocols; vendors are Tier-1 with European-grade norms, and standard insurance policies cover battery projects with rigorous underwriting based on location-specific specifications. (Rajat Seksaria)
PPA achievement and infirm power realizations
- Question: Is the 31% PPA delivery in Q1 seasonal or structural, and what are realized rates on infirm power? (Swetha Rakhecha, Shirom Kapur)
- Answer: Saurabh Shah: structural — CUF is seasonally better in Q1; annual PPA delivery historically averages 109–110%, so full-year delivery is on plan. Ashish Khanna: infirm power realizations are ~₹2.5 per unit including RECs, in line with merchant market; favorable weather is supporting generation and EBITDA conversion. (Saurabh Shah, Ashish Khanna)
Rooftop solar competitive impact
- Question: Does the rooftop boom (8 GW last year, ~12 GW annualized run-rate) reduce the utility-scale market opportunity? (Dhruv Muchhal)
- Answer: Ashish Khanna: India's electricity demand growth tracks GDP, and rooftop cannot serve evening/night peaks or large C&I consumption; both segments can sustain growth, and rooftop adoption is a positive signal for clean energy adoption — no material challenge to the utility segment. (Ashish Khanna)
Future large sites
- Question: Are there other Khavda-scale sites being evaluated? (Nikhil Nigania)
- Answer: Ashish Khanna: multiple "very large" sites with best-in-class solar radiation are being seriously evaluated, enabled by Khavda execution confidence; as a public company, AGEL will disclose when material. (Ashish Khanna)
Key Takeaway
Adani Green Energy entered FY27 with strong momentum, surpassing 20 GW installed capacity (4.3 GW added, +27% YoY), generating 13.7 billion units (+30% YoY), with power-supply revenue of ₹4,280 crore (+29% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹4,122 crore (+33% YoY; 94% margin). The company commissioned 1.9 GW-hour of BESS at Khavda (3.5 GW-hour cumulative) and deployed ₹8,800 crore capex (+41% YoY). Strategically, AGEL moved merchant capacity to fixed-price, SECI-benchmark PPAs with Adani Energy Solutions (25 years solar/wind, 15 years BESS) to lock in ~15–16% hurdle returns, transferring market and policy risk to AESL. For FY27, management guided 5 GW RE addition, 10+ GW-hour BESS, maiden 500 MW PSP commissioning, ~₹42,000 crore capex, and run-rate EBITDA of ~₹21,000 crore by year-end. Curtailment, currently 5–7% of EBITDA, is expected to clear from Khavda by end-CY2026 as 7 GW of evacuation capacity comes online. Key watch points: transmission-related delays, BESS commissioning phasing in a nascent segment, and rising related-party concentration with AESL.