TWIL basket returns

79 themes
79 themes
The Yen Carry Is Alive at 160 — and Japan's Equity-Hedging Flow Is Why It Won't Die Quietly29 Aug 2026Long / short-0.25%-0.40%-2.90%-1.95%-6.51%-22.93%-0.06%
Gold at $4,530 Is a Bad-Rates Rally, Not a Fear Trade29 Aug 2026Long-2.48%-6.61%+14.18%+0.50%-12.52%+31.02%-3.16%
The Front End Is Priced for Cuts — Warsh Just Told You It's a Hike29 Aug 2026Short / long-0.03%0.00%+0.09%-0.22%-0.07%+0.06%-0.13%
Credit Is Pricing Zero Stress Into a Hawkish Fed29 Aug 2026Short+1.19%+0.39%-3.98%-5.79%-7.26%-4.10%+0.56%
The Euro Is Structurally Short Into a Genuine Manufacturing Inflection29 Aug 2026Long-0.35%-0.43%+0.40%+3.42%+6.90%+9.77%-0.49%
Cocoa's Structural Deficit Is a Quantity Story, Not a Macro Story29 Aug 2026Long-1.71%+7.56%+10.11%+30.77%+63.88%-8.24%-0.80%
The Photonics Bottleneck — Optical Chips, Not Fiber, Are the Binding Constraint on AI Networking27 Aug 2026Long-3.26%-8.43%-6.77%-25.18%+0.67%+112.44%-6.38%
The SaaSpocalypse Recovery Is Mostly Priced In — One Software Stock Still Proves the Market Wrong27 Aug 2026Long-3.79%+7.00%+36.21%+36.95%+78.17%+20.82%-1.18%
AI Cybersecurity Defensive Surge — The 17x Spending Gap Nobody Is Pricing27 Aug 2026Long-2.98%+8.50%+7.40%+12.68%+34.72%-4.42%-0.71%
The LME Metals Supply Crisis — Zinc, Copper, Aluminum at a Generational Inflection27 Aug 2026Long-2.01%-4.97%+11.99%-7.68%+1.89%+77.80%-3.68%
Biotech's 82% Rally — The Bear Market Is Over, But the Best Names Are Not in the XBI27 Aug 2026Long-1.54%-4.71%+32.09%+50.35%+85.61%+160.25%-6.55%
China AI Chip Self-Sufficiency — The HBM Bottleneck Is the Real Trade27 Aug 2026Long-3.00%+0.64%+2.80%-4.39%+39.54%+71.62%-3.87%
The Ex-China Critical Mineral Supply Chain — Four Bottlenecks, Four ASX-Listed Solutions27 Aug 2026Long-2.94%-4.82%+12.56%+3.59%+3.85%+41.52%-5.01%
Brazil's Election — Lula's Lead Is Shrinking and the Market Is Not Pricing It27 Aug 2026Long+2.23%+4.79%+0.48%+4.01%+3.99%+37.82%+4.56%
The Oral GLP-1 Market — $9B to $137B, the Trade Is the Factories and Equipment27 Aug 2026Long-2.46%-3.69%+6.73%+20.46%+25.02%+12.22%-3.51%
Solar Oversupply Collapse — The Second-Derivative Victims27 Aug 2026Short+0.66%+11.29%+6.51%+31.40%+24.32%+11.22%+7.38%
The AI Buildout Just Moved Onto Levered Balance Sheets — Own the Financing Plumbing21 Aug 2026Long-1.98%-1.04%+3.13%+13.03%+13.22%-5.05%-0.64%
Treasury's Intervention Failed in 48 Hours — The YCC Transition Trade Has Begun21 Aug 2026Long-2.36%-7.69%+25.73%+10.45%-8.74%+51.83%-5.82%
Four Calls, Seven Days, Same Words — The K-Shaped Consumer Is Now Printed21 Aug 2026Long-0.84%-5.74%-5.10%+7.69%+4.40%+12.65%-6.54%
Deere Put Its Name on the Ag Cycle Bottom — The Dealers Re-Rate First21 Aug 2026Long+1.51%+5.71%+13.20%-5.13%-6.70%-6.13%+4.85%
Coking Coal — The Forgotten Commodity Trade With Single-Digit Multiples21 Aug 2026Long+0.66%+6.18%+34.19%+2.46%+16.56%+48.29%+7.04%
Three Constraints Converge on One Export Corridor21 Aug 2026Long+1.70%+2.45%+8.64%+4.87%+2.64%+7.45%+1.42%
Analog Semis Quietly Ended Their Downturn21 Aug 2026Long-2.22%-3.39%-6.28%-28.18%+11.76%+20.50%-3.76%
Poland Joins the Developed World21 Aug 2026Long-0.08%-3.84%+0.38%+9.82%+22.19%+50.21%-2.20%
The First-Ever Phase 3 Win for an mRNA Cancer Vaccine — Own the Manufacturing Ramp21 Aug 2026Long-2.13%-11.21%+21.07%+29.65%+61.14%+100.80%-12.20%
The Apartment Supply Cliff Arrived21 Aug 2026Long-0.44%-3.45%-3.87%-5.78%-4.37%-10.39%-3.02%
Space Equities Have a Printed Supply Calendar21 Aug 2026Short+2.67%+5.94%-2.54%+46.87%+14.14%-0.78%+12.56%
AI Compute Scarcity: The Bottleneck Is Power, Land, and Cooling13 Aug 2026Long-2.13%-6.30%+0.13%-24.87%+23.94%+91.83%-16.00%
AI Optical Lasers: The Indium Phosphide Sovereign-Access Problem13 Aug 2026Long-2.55%-3.91%+2.75%-31.00%+22.25%+405.82%-12.03%
BPO AI Displacement: Short the Seat-Sellers13 Aug 2026Short-2.81%-5.95%-7.29%-11.79%-7.49%+23.65%-8.46%
China's Memory Flood: CXMT Builds DRAM on Domestic Tools13 Aug 2026Long-3.97%-2.16%-0.72%-3.18%+47.74%+148.22%-6.61%
Capesize Tonne-Miles: The 2027 Derating Fear Is the Mispricing13 Aug 2026Long+1.00%-0.40%+7.14%+17.75%+23.15%+93.93%+8.45%
GLP-1 CDMO Scaffold: Fill-Finish Is the New Constraint13 Aug 2026Long-1.33%-2.01%+7.70%+15.61%+30.21%+13.25%-1.93%
Hormuz Bypass: The EPC Buildout Around the Pipe13 Aug 2026Long-0.19%+0.71%+4.42%-1.88%+13.24%+21.20%-1.89%
Japan Steepener: The Unpriced Terminal Rate13 Aug 2026Long-1.28%+1.96%+5.21%+16.03%+25.62%+64.99%+0.99%
Offshore Jackups: Production Security Reprices the Rig Cycle13 Aug 2026Long+2.10%+3.92%+15.08%+6.75%+5.59%+52.71%+6.78%
Uranium Surety: Equities Price 2021, Contracts Price 202613 Aug 2026Long-3.03%-5.19%+12.60%-15.74%-13.73%+9.89%-0.14%
AI Power Delivery: The Bottleneck Moved From Chips to Amps24 Jul 2026Long-2.44%-4.94%-7.49%-23.59%+22.34%+113.88%-8.73%
Auto/Tesla Collapse: The Supply Chain Fragmentation24 Jul 2026Short+2.84%+2.48%-0.08%+24.68%+17.36%+9.91%+0.39%
CXMT IPO: China's DRAM Supply Chain Cashes In24 Jul 2026Long-4.55%-3.85%+1.93%+11.82%+42.87%+136.29%-7.68%
Defense & Aerospace Suppliers: The Forgotten Backlog Cycle24 Jul 2026Long-2.73%-8.32%-7.66%-5.88%+4.70%+53.05%-10.36%
Equipment Rental Mega-Project: URI's Record Confirms the Infrastructure Cycle24 Jul 2026Long-3.07%-5.11%-9.22%-9.90%-4.16%+2.06%-13.90%
Global Wheat Crisis: Three Supply Shocks Collide24 Jul 2026Long+1.64%+4.35%+6.72%-5.08%-8.67%+2.98%-3.53%
Industrial Commodity Supercycle: Aluminum and Copper Hitting Escape Velocity24 Jul 2026Long+0.17%+0.73%+3.11%-10.26%+3.39%+69.75%+1.72%
Japan JGB 40-Year Crisis: The Reflexive Loop That Transmits Globally24 Jul 2026Short-0.86%-2.09%+1.19%-7.30%-12.09%-17.63%+1.55%
Non-Prime Lending: The Credit Cycle Everyone Missed24 Jul 2026Long-2.02%-6.42%-5.46%+19.56%+20.52%+27.04%-6.45%
Rail Infrastructure Mega-Cycle: Wabtec's $30.9B Backlog24 Jul 2026Long-3.17%-5.66%-8.27%-2.90%-6.92%+20.70%-13.59%
Sports Betting B2B: The Infrastructure Layer Behind the World Cup24 Jul 2026Long-0.55%-1.62%-0.62%+3.47%+28.17%-2.01%+1.94%
Rare Earths' November 10 Cliff: The Yttrium Chokepoint and $6.5T Downstream at Risk17 Jul 2026Long-1.36%-9.98%+21.20%-12.30%-5.97%+19.71%+15.51%
The RIN Squeeze: Record Renewable Fuel Mandates Meet a Production Shortfall17 Jul 2026Long+2.71%+5.75%+6.41%+5.28%+19.59%+78.74%+0.63%
Sea Drones' Combat Debut: The Unmanned Fleet Supply Chain17 Jul 2026Long-2.20%-3.66%-2.84%-13.20%-26.87%-17.46%-0.16%
Golden Dome Precision Timing: The Sole-Source Layer Beneath the Primes17 Jul 2026Long-2.97%-4.12%-3.55%-12.49%+4.32%+54.03%-7.35%
The Aero Aftermarket Annuity: Supply-Capped Spares Pricing Power17 Jul 2026Long-1.97%-5.43%-6.45%+1.24%-6.62%+12.10%-4.38%
Regional Banks NII Re-Rating: The Curve-Steepening Mechanism17 Jul 2026Long-2.10%-2.89%-5.93%+6.33%+7.04%+6.09%-6.25%
Staffing Reacceleration: The Labor Market's Early-Cycle Signal17 Jul 2026Long-2.01%-1.23%+7.78%+33.42%+55.65%+25.01%+7.68%
Freight's Supply-Side Turn: Rates Rise Because Capacity Left17 Jul 2026Long-4.53%-5.33%-10.12%-5.72%-5.04%+18.64%-14.51%
China's Auto Flood and the PCTC Duopoly Bottleneck17 Jul 2026Long+0.08%+2.34%+5.68%+24.04%+25.49%+69.52%+14.59%
The Hormuz Aluminum Squeeze: Physical Premiums Over LME Futures17 Jul 2026Long+0.87%+1.89%+2.35%-17.95%+7.27%+67.02%+4.75%
Lithium's AI Storage Cycle: The Deficit Nobody Owns17 Jul 2026Long-0.29%+0.65%+14.64%-24.37%-8.84%+63.62%+9.63%
Thailand: The Zero-AI-Beta Rotation Destination17 Jul 2026Long-0.50%-2.06%-1.58%+9.59%+13.85%+30.68%-1.11%
Memory Leverage Unwind: The Mechanical Liquidation of the Crowded AI Trade17 Jul 2026Short+1.91%-1.41%-12.24%+17.04%-137.78%-1587.84%-6.92%
Hormuz Pipeline Bypass: The Phase 2 Squeeze in Fabrication Yards, Pipe, and Distressed EPC10 Jul 2026Long-0.38%+0.69%+7.97%+7.88%+40.70%+45.37%+4.24%
Japan GPIF Repatriation: The $93 Billion Structural Flow Breaking the Yen10 Jul 2026Long-0.04%+0.54%-1.45%+0.99%+11.29%+36.73%-4.93%
US Industrial Inflection: The Transformer Bottleneck Cascade Creates Pricing Power in Middle-Market Industrials10 Jul 2026Long-1.44%-1.96%-0.09%-1.18%+13.84%+21.62%+0.65%
AI Memory Infrastructure: CXL Memory Pooling and the Coolant Chemistry Layer10 Jul 2026Long-1.90%-2.00%-1.95%-20.23%+69.67%+69.61%-12.24%
Singapore Quiet Outperformer: Beyond the Banks at All-Time Highs10 Jul 2026Long+0.21%+0.35%+3.44%+11.79%+24.47%+44.68%+3.48%
Oil & Gas Refining Margins: The Picks and Shovels Behind $60+ Crack Spreads10 Jul 2026Long+1.21%+7.50%+8.45%+38.04%+56.99%+117.25%+26.63%
Capital Markets Stealth Rally: The 24-Point Divergence in Fee-Layer Infrastructure10 Jul 2026Long-0.18%-0.25%+3.83%+14.61%+13.56%+14.05%+12.74%
Stablecoin Institutionalization: The Regulated Dollar Capture Opens a $4 Trillion Treasury Market10 Jul 2026Long-4.77%-3.56%+24.37%+7.28%-5.06%-21.68%+20.80%
Nigeria Frontier Market Upgrade: The World's Best Market Nobody Owns10 Jul 2026Long-1.27%-3.69%+10.03%+6.64%+5.43%+28.23%+10.11%
Prediction Markets Infrastructure: Event Contracts as Financial Infrastructure04 Jul 2026Long-1.05%-1.97%+1.89%+11.24%+12.71%+13.16%+7.23%
Financialization of Birth: The Compliance Layer Behind Trump Accounts04 Jul 2026Long-1.28%-2.91%+2.01%+14.00%+16.48%-0.14%+8.22%
India Textiles Trade-Deal Arbitrage: Bottleneck Suppliers and Integrated Mills04 Jul 2026Long+0.98%+1.89%+8.48%+15.83%+43.37%+36.77%+3.77%
HALEU Fuel Cycle: The Least-Appreciated Chokepoint in the Nuclear Renaissance04 Jul 2026Long+0.59%-2.02%+5.15%-15.88%-13.50%+2.41%-6.75%
Humanoid Robotics Supply Chain: Process Capacity, Not AI, Is the Binding Constraint04 Jul 2026Long-2.74%-2.84%-3.39%-14.88%+5.40%+31.02%-24.35%
North American Compliance & Capacity: USMCA Review as Industrial-Capex Catalyst04 Jul 2026Long-0.79%-2.35%+0.74%-2.62%+14.25%+39.75%+2.79%
Public-Private REIT Repricing: Small-Cap Valuation Gap and M&A Optionality04 Jul 2026Long+0.19%-3.43%-4.82%+2.80%+10.79%+6.93%-5.75%
Healthcare Scarcity Infrastructure: The Layers Beneath the Mega-Caps04 Jul 2026Long+0.14%-3.36%+19.92%+27.25%+30.86%+48.00%+8.46%
South Korea Leverage Unwind: Second-Order Damage in Won, Banks, and Brokerage04 Jul 2026Short0.00%-0.61%-0.62%+9.07%+12.46%-46.21%+7.24%