Alpex Solar is an integrated solar equipment manufacturer based in Greater Noida, with solar module manufacturing as its primary revenue driver, supported by in-house aluminum frames, a 2.2 GW TOPCon solar cell line under commissioning, and EPC and IPP operations. The company currently operates 2.4 GW of module capacity, expanding to 3.6 GW, and 12,000 metric tons of aluminum frame capacity, which is set to rise to 18,000 tons. The competitive structure is fragmented at the module level, but the cell segment is capital-intensive and dominated by a few integrated players. Alpex's FY26 EBITDA margin was 14.7% on revenue of Rs 2,223 crores, and Q1 FY27 came in at 15.5%, reflecting the module-only economics. The cell business, once operational, is guided to deliver 25% EBITDA margins on a conservative basis and PAT margins above 16%, which would transform the blended margin profile.
The persistence of these economics rests on policy-backed barriers and backward integration. ALMM List-II, effective June 1, 2026, restricts Chinese cell imports, insulating domestic cell prices, and ALMM List-III (ALWM) from June 2028 will require domestic wafer and ingot, a segment Alpex plans to enter with 2.5 GW capacity by that date. The company's G12R cell technology, first in India, and its planned copper-based paste to reduce silver costs by 15-20% provide a structural cost advantage. Cell manufacturing requires long qualification cycles and significant capital, and Alpex's in-house aluminum frames and future glass and wafer lines create a fully integrated model that is difficult to replicate. The company claims to be the most cost-competitive cell manufacturer in India, and its selective order taking, with an order book of Rs 1,900 crores, supports pricing discipline.
The inflection is the commissioning of the 2.2 GW cell line at Kosi, now scheduled for mid-September 2026, with the first invoice expected on September 19-20, 2026. The full capacity will be operational in a single phase, and management targets 90-95% utilization within 45 days of start-up. For H2 FY27, the company expects to sell roughly 1 GW of cell output, generating around Rs 1,700 crores of revenue, while the remaining cell production feeds its own modules. By FY28, with the full 2.2 GW cell capacity, revenue is guided to reach approximately Rs 4,000 crores. Additionally, a 200 MW pilot ingot/wafer line is targeted for April 2027, and the 2.5 GW ingot/wafer plant is slated for June 2028. Eighteen to twenty-four months from now, Alpex should be operating with 3.6 GW module capacity, 2.2 GW in-house cells, 18,000 tons of aluminum frames, and a nascent wafer/ingot operation, with revenue run-rate around Rs 4,000 crores and blended EBITDA margins in the mid-20s.
Management has a track record of overdelivering. In the November 2025 call, they guided FY26 revenue to exceed Rs 1,500 crores; actual FY26 revenue came in at Rs 2,223 crores. They guided FY27 revenue growth of 2x from the base, and now expect to exceed Rs 3,000 crores, with the cell line adding upside. The cell line was originally promised for Q1 FY27, but a fire incident delayed commissioning to September 2026, a slip of roughly one quarter, which management disclosed transparently. They have funded the Rs 825-890 crore cell capex through internal accruals and debt, with no further equity dilution planned, and they intend to migrate from the SME board to the main board in February 2027. The aluminum frame expansion is expected to add Rs 60 crores of incremental profit next year, and the company has consistently held or raised its guidance.
The earnings path is quantifiable: FY27 revenue above Rs 3,000 crores, with cell business contributing about Rs 1,700 crores in H2 at 25% EBITDA margins, and FY28 revenue near Rs 4,000 crores. The key assumption is that the cell line ramps to 90-95% utilization within 45 days and sustains that level, and that module realizations hold around Rs 18.5-19 per watt. The single most important watchpoint is the execution of the cell line ramp-up, as any delay or yield issue would compress the margin expansion. The tension between the earlier guidance of 35-40% cell EBITDA and the conservative 25% figure is resolved by the company's stated conservatism, but the upside exists if industry benchmarks are achieved. The falsifier would be a sustained failure to reach targeted utilization or a policy reversal on ALMM, which would expose the business to Chinese cell competition.
companyname: Alpex Solar Limited ticker: ALPEXSOLAR sector: Solar PV Manufacturing / Renewable Energy Alpex Solar is an integrated solar module manufacturer that started in 1993 as an international trading house and pivoted to solar manufacturing in 2008. It is headquartered in Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, and listed on the NSE Emerge SME platform in February 2024 (FY25 annual report). The company has grown from a focused module maker into a multi-vertical renewable energy group, with over 1 m...
Read the full report →capex, margin expansion, regulatory approval
FY27 revenue guided at Rs.3,000 crores driven by cell business expansion and order book of Rs.1,900 crores
Guidance upgradedoverdeliver
Get valuation models, detailed research reports, thematic primers, one-pagers, risk analysis, growth triggers, bear case, capex tracker, walk the talk, and more for Alpex Solar Ltd. and 4,900+ companies.
5-day free pass. No card required.